Is a Texas Housing Market Price Correction Coming? What San Antonio Buyers and Sellers Need to Know

If you’ve been keeping an eye on the Texas housing market, you’ve probably noticed the headlines: Inventory is up, home prices are cooling, and whispers of a "price correction" are getting louder. While it’s true that many Texas cities—like Houston, Austin, and Dallas—are starting to feel the effects of rising housing supply and stagnant demand, what does this mean for San Antonio?

Let’s break it down.

📉 What’s Happening in the Texas Housing Market?

During the pandemic, Texas was a hotspot for relocation. Warm weather, no state income tax, and relatively affordable housing brought buyers in droves, especially from out of state. To meet demand, builders ramped up new construction—and fast. In fact, Texas accounted for 15% of all new home construction permits in 2024, the highest in the nation.

But now that the pandemic-fueled migration has slowed and many companies are calling workers back to the office, buyer demand has cooled. Meanwhile, mortgage rates continue to hover between 6% and 7%, and home insurance and property taxes are rising across the state. That combination is making homeownership less affordable for many Texans.

As a result, housing inventory is piling up. February 2025 saw 105,867 active listings, the highest level for that month in over 10 years, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Redfin’s data shows it even higher at 151,335 homes, up 16% year-over-year.

🏘️ What This Means for San Antonio

Here in San Antonio, the story is playing out a little differently—but the same themes are starting to take shape.

🔹 Inventory is rising.
San Antonio saw a 28% year-over-year increase in housing inventory at the end of 2024, with over 10,600 active listings—the highest level since 2017. More homes on the market means buyers have more negotiating power.

🔹 Prices are softening.
While not falling off a cliff, San Antonio’s median home price dropped to $290,000, down 2.4% from the year before. Homes are also sitting longer, averaging 83 days on the market, compared to 43 days this time last year.

🔹 Price cuts are more common.
More than 30% of listings in San Antonio had price reductions in recent months, showing that sellers are adjusting to the changing market dynamics.

📊 Why Experts Say a Correction Is Likely

Real estate analysts and economists are warning that what we’re seeing isn’t just seasonal—it’s a sign of a broader market shift.

“Housing inventory in Texas keeps exploding… Don't be surprised if markets like Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio start to trend into negatives on price growth.”
— Nick Gerli, CEO of Reventure App

While many assume that prices only crash in a recession, what we’re likely to see is a price correction—a slow adjustment as the market seeks balance between supply and demand. Texas markets, especially those that grew rapidly during the pandemic, are at the highest risk.

🛠️ What Buyers & Sellers in San Antonio Should Do Now

✅ For Buyers:
This could be the window you’ve been waiting for. More listings, longer market times, and fewer bidding wars mean more room to negotiate. Don’t let high rates stop you—if you find the right home, you can always refinance later.

✅ For Sellers:
It’s time to price competitively. Homes that sit too long without a price adjustment often get stale. Work with a local agent who knows how to price right and present your home with strong marketing strategies.

✅ For Investors:
With rents stabilizing and prices softening, now might be the perfect time to scoop up deals in up-and-coming neighborhoods like Government Hill, Denver Heights, or Southtown.

📍 Final Thoughts

San Antonio may not see dramatic price drops, but the writing is on the wall: The Texas housing market is shifting. As inventory rises and buyer activity cools, a price correction could continue into late 2025.

Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, staying ahead of these trends can make all the difference.

Need advice for navigating San Antonio’s market right now?
📞 Reach out to Kristen Smith, your local San Antonio real estate expert, for tailored guidance in this changing market. Let’s make smart moves—together.

Kristen Smith, Realtor Best San Antonio Realtor