Should You Buy a Home During a Recession? Here’s What the Data Says

A shrinking economy. Rising mortgage rates. Flatlining prices.
If you’ve been thinking about buying a home in 2025, it’s no wonder you’re feeling hesitant.

The U.S. economy just posted a 0.3% decline in GDP for Q1 2025. It’s the kind of headline that makes people hit pause on big decisions.

But smart buyers aren’t freezing — they’re planning. Here’s how to be one of them.

💡 Step 1: Get Clear on What’s Actually Worrying You

Many buyers are saying the same thing:

“I think I just want to wait and see what happens with the economy. I don’t want to make a mistake.”

That’s understandable. Buying a home is a major life decision. But instead of sitting on the sidelines in fear, start by identifying what’s truly causing concern. Is it:

• High interest rates?
• Fear of a price drop?
• Job uncertainty?
• Market timing?

Once you know your "why," it’s easier to navigate your options with confidence.

📈 Step 2: Understand What the Market Is Actually Doing

Here’s what most people don’t realize: home prices don’t always fall during recessions.

In fact, in four of the past six recessions, home prices actually went up:

📊

• 1980: +6.1%
• 1981: +3.5%
• 2001: +6.6%
• 2020: +6%

The 2008 housing crash was the outlier, not the norm. Today’s market fundamentals are very different.

🏘️ Let’s Talk About What’s Happening Now

According to the latest April 2025 Realtor.com report:

• 📈 Inventory is up 30.6% year-over-year — more choices, less competition
• 🏷️ 18% of listings had price reductions in April — highest for any April since 2016
• ⏳ Homes are taking longer to sell — median 50 days on market
• 💵 National median list price: $431,250, up just 1.1% per sq. ft. — values are stable

This is not a repeat of 2008. It’s a market correction — not a collapse.

📍 Zooming in on San Antonio

Here in San Antonio, the market reflects these same patterns:

• 🏡 14,716 active listings — up 18% from last year
• ⏱️ Average days on market: 87
• 🎯 Buyers have more leverage, more time, and less bidding war stress

Real estate is always local — and this is your San Antonio snapshot.

🔑 Step 3: Build Your Game Plan

Whether you want to buy now or later, here are two smart paths forward:

✅ Option 1: Rent & Ready

Build a 6–12 month strategy:

• Save cash
• Improve your credit
• Track the market
• Get pre-approved

✅ Option 2: Move While Others Wait

Buy now while others hesitate:

• Take advantage of reduced competition
• Negotiate with motivated sellers
• Lock in a home before prices trend up again

Both are smart. It just depends on your goals.

💬 Final Thought: The Market Favors the Prepared

Yes, the economy feels uncertain. Yes, interest rates are higher than a few years ago.

But if history tells us anything, it’s this: real estate isn’t about timing the market — it’s about time IN the market.

Buyers who succeed in 2025 will be the ones who stayed calm, gathered facts, and made bold yet informed moves.

👉 Let’s talk about your 6–18 month plan. Whether you're ready now or just preparing, I’ll help you make the smartest move for your situation.